I got
into guns after the 2008 election. Since
then I have learned a great deal about the economics of the hobby. There are a lot of variables at play—what
laws are likely to pass in your region, how the upcoming candidates are set
V.S. gun control, how National and state congresses look to shake out, how many
supreme court slots are coming up for nomination, and what events have recently
spurred the second amendment debate. I
would find the entire process fascinating if the future of one of my favorite
activities did not hang in the balance.
The 2012
election was an exercise in chaos theory for the people of the gun. Obama, he of the clinging to guns and
religion fame, had proven that gun control was high on his personal to-do-list. Romney was not a noted second amendment
supporter either—a practical politician in his way but not exactly the bulwark
candidate the gun community wanted.
Rhetoric was heated, fears of national gun control were rampant, and
shelves were empty of common ammunition types and platforms. Newtown and the Colorado movie shooting
simply enhanced the 2a community’s belief that dark days lay ahead.
Although
the media enjoys mocking the firearm related fearmongering that precedes
National elections, the community’s fears were justified. In 1993, the Stockton school yard shooting
resulted in the death of five elementary school students, the shooter, and the
wounding of 28 other individuals. That
event precipitated the 1994 Federal assault weapon ban—and Stockton occurred
before the dawning of social media, the internet news cycle, and today’s deeply
partisan politics. The1981 attempted
assassination of Ronald Reagan and the 1933 attempt on FDR both lead to
landmark restrictive firearm laws. The
United States has a history of reactively legislating guns after National tragedies—and
New Town was more than five times as deadly as the Stockton shooting. So while there was definitely a period of
panic buying pre-election and post Newtown, that panic stemmed from multiple
historical benchmarks.
Frankly,
I hate panic buying. Heeding the call of
the falling sky strikes me as the worst kind of group think. Giving into mass hysteria harkens far too
close to a loss of reason for my taste.
Gun owners have plenty of legitimate material to give them pause
entering the 2016 election cycle without falling prey to chicken little syndrome. Between multiple large scale terrorist
strikes in Europe, the San Bernardino and Orlando shootings, the wife of the
president who signed the 1994 AWB carrying the Democrat’s torch, Republicans
publicly working for a compromise bill on no fly-no buy, and the recent
shooting of 11 Dallas police officers at a black lives matter protest, the 2016
election cycle looks primed for gun control to become a defining issue. More broadly, democrats have seaced to view
gun control as the electrified third rail of politics. California just passed a Pandora’s box of
restrictive firearm related legislation in a state that already boasted one of
the strongest anti-gun pedigrees. Heller
and McDonald have been tempered by the Supreme court’s inability/unwillingness
to clarify issues such as may issue concealed carry, assault weapons bans, and
restrictive firearm ownership requirements.
It seems unlikely that the 8 member Roberts court will strike a blow in
favor of gun rights before they get their ninth justice—and depending on how
the election goes not even then. Fear is
not my goal. There is a cycle to these
things—I just want people to make informed decisions in times of crisis.
As the
song says, “to everything there is a season.”
The cycle starts around July during presidential campaign years. Common ammunition begins to rise in
cost. Bulk deals sell out quickly. Popular platforms—especially semiautomatic
rifles and magazines—are harder to find.
September—after the conventions are done and the attack adds ramp up—is when
prices start to skyrocket. The panic
starts. People lose their minds. In November—forget it. Popular military calibers—9mm, .45acp, .223,
and .308—can only be had at gold plated prices when available at all. You can still find self-defense ammunition
but cheap range ammunition is a thing of the past. Popular recreational calibers like .357 and
.22lr simply cannot be found. Reloading
supplies like powder and primers vanish.
Suppliers buy out any excess market capacity. Hoarders buy up everything—and I do mean
everything. Market momentum and scarcity
keeps the storm going well into the following summer. Two years later—as the midterms are cranking
up—most ammunition types and supplies can be had if not cheaply. Three years later and prices and suppliers
are down to desirable levels again—just in time for the next National panic.
So in no
particular order, here are my suggestions for the upcoming ammunition desert:
1.
If your state is going to outlaw something, buy
it now. Even if you don’t get to shoot
for a while, better to have the rifle, handgun, or magazine you want.
2.
Even if you have to split the cost with someone
else, buy at least a thousand rounds of handgun or 500 rounds of rifle ammunition
for your favorite firearms—more depending on how often and in what volume you
expend gun food.
3.
The preferred order of purchase should be
platform—magazines (at least 6)—and finally ammunition.
4.
There is no substitute for a handgun or rifle and
a couple thousand rounds of .22lr. The
cost per round is low enough that you can stock upwards of 5,000 rounds for
less than $500.
5.
There is a saying in banking, the best time to
start saving was yesterday. The second
best day is today. Buy it cheap and
stack it deep.
You do not have to buy in
fear. Ammunition prices and supply will
normalize eventually. Buy smarter. Buy defensively if you have to but do so with
full knowledge of your options. Your
wallet will thank you—as may your range partners when you are the only one with
gun food in 2017.
No comments:
Post a Comment